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Old 01-29-2018, 08:39 PM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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I haven't used this thread in some time. Time to fix that.

One of the more evergreen responses that I've gotten to my concerns for future Night Elf lore is that I should wait for future developments. Alpha is Alpha, Beta is Beta. Blizzard could change their minds, and of course: the Night Elves could be redeemed in future content. The greatest manifestation of this thinking of all time, at least in my opinion, came only recently, with optimistic posters claiming that this could be a fresh start for the Night Elves. Surely, this would not end up being as bad as it appears.

Some recent developments have lent some credence to this argument. The Alliance has only 'invaded' Tirisfal so far, meaning that we have satisfied a "zone for zone" trade with the destruction of Teldrassil. The Kalimdor warfront doesn't mention Ashenvale (which is either really good or really bad), and the ship from Stormwind reroutes to Darkshore. Another good sign, at least if you're asking me, is that Tyrande so far appears to be absent from the Fall of Lordaeron scenario, indicating that she's got other things that she's doing (unless those other things include being murdered, which I wouldn't mind that much).

Those are wonderful pros of course, but now here's the con.

The evidence is firmly against the optimist.



I believe my assumptions are fairly clearly laid out, and where I believe they required additional explanation, there is a memo field under comments. The bottom line is this: if you're judging it from my perspective, that of a fairly typical Night Elf fan, the probability that future content in general will be good is at best 30%. It drops to, again at best, 10% if the information that comes out in advance of the release of the content already suggests that it's going to mean bad things for the Night Elves.

I will also point out that without exception, each of the items marked as "looked bad, was bad" was not redeemed or made up for in future content. I include Cataclysm's Ashenvale in this because the "reconquest" happened offscreen.

(I left Vanilla content out due to the inability to form predictions in advance of it, and that it was well before the changing of the guard with regard to developers. Vanilla was fine, but I don't see a reasonable argument of it as being a predictor of future content.)

(As another side note, I think that a good goal for positive to negative content lies between 60% to 75%. All races should have flaws, but not to this extent)

You are welcome to dispute my weights of course, there are subjective elements to this, and while I feel confident that I can defend every number on that spreadsheet, I leave the floor open. However, I also don't think that most of the adjustments that even my most adamant of detractors can seriously propose will materially affect these numbers. So I am confident in my conclusion:

There is a 7.5% chance, going by prior data, that the Burning of Teldrassil will result in positive developments for the Night Elves. It is not reasonable to assert that this event will result in some renaissance for the Night Elves. The data says otherwise.
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Last edited by Kyalin V. Raintree; 01-29-2018 at 08:42 PM..
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