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Old 08-31-2017, 11:43 AM
Mertico Mertico is offline

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Originally Posted by PajamaSalad View Post
I know they have one. Most militaries use self defense to justify their existence. Japan needs to move beyond its pacifism and understand that a stronger military will help their allies and protect their people from threats like North Korea. It would be an effective deterrent.
Japan just got full control of their army again after WWII a year or so ago.
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  #28552  
Old 08-31-2017, 12:03 PM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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They don't want that. They pretty much just like having the DPRK as a buffer state.
It's also worth remembering that Kim Jong-Un executed his uncle, a notable Chinese ally. China supporting NK is probably a short-sighted move, because Kim's already destroyed some of their in-country assets. If things really fall apart there, and Kim has nothing left to lose... Beijing is within missile range.

Though China can't afford to have NK collapse, either. They're pretty much riding the tiger at this point. Plus, there's that border dispute with India.

Abe's been taking steps to re-arm Japan, which is a good thing. Weakness is a provocation in international relations, and Japan needs to understand this.
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  #28553  
Old 08-31-2017, 12:32 PM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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The communists did a bad job at building their half of Korea. Same genetics and mostly same history yet one is poor and malnourished and firing missiles and threatening people. The other makes phones and television sets.
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Old 08-31-2017, 08:36 PM
Kakwakas Kakwakas is offline

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Should Japan even be trusted with an "offensive-capable" military? They still have lots of politicians that downplay or even deny Japanese war crimes during WWII. I think it would ruffle a lot of feathers across Asia, too.
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  #28555  
Old 08-31-2017, 09:02 PM
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Should Japan even be trusted with an "offensive-capable" military? They still have lots of politicians that downplay or even deny Japanese war crimes during WWII. I think it would ruffle a lot of feathers across Asia, too.
I don't think children should pay for the sins of their parents. It's been several generations.

Yes, there are too many asshole politicians in Japan who downplay the atrocities of World War 2. And yes, Abe is far too comfortable with them. However, it's clear that Japan no longer threatens peace in East Asia.
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  #28556  
Old 08-31-2017, 10:01 PM
Mutterscrawl Mutterscrawl is offline

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Originally Posted by Kakwakas View Post
Should Japan even be trusted with an "offensive-capable" military? They still have lots of politicians that downplay or even deny Japanese war crimes during WWII. I think it would ruffle a lot of feathers across Asia, too.
While them downplaying/denying the atrocities is reprehensible, I think Japanese culture has changed enough that they're not likely to repeat the abuses of the past, or at the very least not on the US or its allies
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Old 09-02-2017, 08:24 AM
ijffdrie ijffdrie is offline

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Supreme Court in Kenya nullified the election results, and demanded a new election. So they're not out of the woods yet.


(If you're missing the context, the 2007 election resulted in a pretty major death toll, and the 2013 election was no picnic either)
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  #28558  
Old 09-02-2017, 07:28 PM
Mutterscrawl Mutterscrawl is offline

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Supreme Court in Kenya nullified the election results, and demanded a new election. So they're not out of the woods yet.


(If you're missing the context, the 2007 election resulted in a pretty major death toll, and the 2013 election was no picnic either)
Damn What basis did they nullify the results on?


Also, Venezuela is not looking so hot either still.

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  #28559  
Old 09-02-2017, 08:01 PM
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Damn What basis did they nullify the results on?
'Irregularities' during the election made the results as reliable as the politicians that were elected by them.
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  #28560  
Old 09-02-2017, 08:32 PM
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'Irregularities' during the election made the results as reliable as the politicians that were elected by them.
Gah, sounds like Kenya has a long hard road ahead of it
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Old 09-03-2017, 05:18 AM
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So it seems the Norks tested a hydrogen bomb for real this time. Not yet confirmed but the SKs estimate the yield of the bomb to be 40-50kt (though I suppose it is in their best interest to overestimate). It could still be a very large fission bomb but that is unlikely.

Kind of scary but it is questionable if their bomb is miniaturized, i.e. able to fit on a missile. And their long range missiles (capable of striking mainland US) are still unreliable too. Their neighbors are at great risk however.

My main impression of NK, with all these threats and tests in recent years is that they are very desperate and afraid of a US invasion. It is stupid to fire your only hydrogen bomb in a test unless you are desperate to show power and keep the enemy at bay. I'd argue invasion is now likelier than ever but the US is still being held back by the prospect of the horrendous civilian casualties both in and outside NK.
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Old 09-03-2017, 01:52 PM
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So it seems the Norks tested a hydrogen bomb for real this time. Not yet confirmed but the SKs estimate the yield of the bomb to be 40-50kt (though I suppose it is in their best interest to overestimate). It could still be a very large fission bomb but that is unlikely.

Kind of scary but it is questionable if their bomb is miniaturized, i.e. able to fit on a missile. And their long range missiles (capable of striking mainland US) are still unreliable too. Their neighbors are at great risk however.

My main impression of NK, with all these threats and tests in recent years is that they are very desperate and afraid of a US invasion. It is stupid to fire your only hydrogen bomb in a test unless you are desperate to show power and keep the enemy at bay. I'd argue invasion is now likelier than ever but the US is still being held back by the prospect of the horrendous civilian casualties both in and outside NK.
To say nothing of the prospect of China deciding the us is acting out of line in a preemptive strike and being dragged into o a nasty war they really don't want.

But on the topic of Kenya, I may be mistaken on this, but it's my understanding that while this is a setback for a country with a bad history when it comes to elections, the Chief Justice is generally seen as being a fair cop in the judiciary branch. We can only hope this all gets resolved without violence.
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  #28563  
Old 09-04-2017, 02:31 PM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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To say nothing of the prospect of China deciding the us is acting out of line in a preemptive strike and being dragged into o a nasty war they really don't want.

But on the topic of Kenya, I may be mistaken on this, but it's my understanding that while this is a setback for a country with a bad history when it comes to elections, the Chief Justice is generally seen as being a fair cop in the judiciary branch. We can only hope this all gets resolved without violence.
NK having a hydrogen bomb doesn't really change things that much. Basically they have a more powerful deterrent than they did before. There's also talk of an EMP strike though my understanding is that NK would need a larger and more sophisticated arsenal to pull that off reliably (I could be wrong hereā€”but again, the point is to have a devastating deterrence). They'll likely get that kind of an arsenal soon or later, anyway.

They know they can't win a conventional war, so their goal is to make warfare appear too painful to pursue. But eventually, their state will collapse. Kim Jong-Un might go gotterdammerung at that point. That could be catastrophic if he's allowed to build a huge arsenal (taking out SK, Japan, parts of the US, and conceivably parts of China, with him). So there really isn't a good solution here.

I suspect Russia's doing the most to help Kim get an arsenal. China wants to maintain the status quo: to have a buffer state between them and SK (and by extension, the US). They're probably covertly aiding NK, because they don't want NK to collapse, but neither do they want NK to escalate the situation with nuclear weapons. Remember: Kim executed Jang Song-thaek, his uncle and a close ally to China. This means China has less control over NK than they'd like.

A nuclear NK does benefit Russia, since it is a problem for both China and the US. It doesn't really threaten Russia.

Kim's motivation is probably to make NK too dangerous to invade. The problem is that security is kind of like drug addiction: you can never really have enough. Once you solve one security issue, you start seeing others. You can never really feel safe.

But an invasion would be tremendously costly in lives: Korean, Japanese, and American (maybe Chinese, as well). It'd also weaken the US, and probably cost us allies in the region, since we'd be blamed for proving NK. If China actually decides to back NK (which they might do, if the US attacks), we could be facing full-scale nuclear warfare.

If we don't invade, then we wait and hope Kim doesn't decide to go apocalyptic when his regime collapses (or that NK is able to sustain itself, though sanctions will make this harder). I don't like the odds of that, though at least China will probably not help them in this scenario (which means low chances of a nuclear war between China and the US).

Plus, Kim's apparently a tremendous drunkard, so he might do something rash under the influence.

I suppose I'd err on the side of caution (basically to avoid a US-China war, which would be disastrous for both countries and everyone around them), but I really don't have any good answers.
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  #28564  
Old 09-04-2017, 02:59 PM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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If North Korea benefits from developing and using nuclear weapons like this then every rogue country will try and develop them. It makes stopping nuclear proliferation harder and the more nations that have nukes the more likely there is going to be an incident whether accidentally or someone madman launches one.
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  #28565  
Old 09-04-2017, 03:41 PM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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If North Korea benefits from developing and using nuclear weapons like this then every rogue country will try and develop them. It makes stopping nuclear proliferation harder and the more nations that have nukes the more likely there is going to be an incident whether accidentally or someone madman launches one.
It's common sense for dictatorial regimes. Nuclear capability ensures that no one will attack them. If Qaddafi had had nukes, he might well still be around.

If we do move to take out NK, we need to get China on our side. And then be prepared to lose thousands of our soldiers, possibly some American cities, and devastation in SK and Japan.
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  #28566  
Old 09-04-2017, 04:02 PM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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It's common sense for dictatorial regimes. Nuclear capability ensures that no one will attack them. If Qaddafi had had nukes, he might well still be around.

If we do move to take out NK, we need to get China on our side. And then be prepared to lose thousands of our soldiers, possibly some American cities, and devastation in SK and Japan.
In a war of a big enough scale I would be recalled. I have a lot of faith in General Mattis though. He knows how war works and how awful it is having been in one. That instills so much more confidence in me that some of the amateurs of the past.

Trump has threatened to stop trade with countries that trade with North Korea. Actually doing that would probably cause more damage than North Korea could. China is responsible for most of it and they probably could do more to rein them in.

Slowing down nuclear proliferation always seemed like a stop gap measure. One day there will be worse weapons. The missile defense has seen some success as has cyber warfare. These are the kind of things we should be developing to make nuclear weapons less intimidating.
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Old 09-04-2017, 04:09 PM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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In a war of a big enough scale I would be recalled. I have a lot of faith in General Mattis though. He knows how war works and how awful it is having been in one. That instills so much more confidence in me that some of the amateurs of the past.

Trump has threatened to stop trade with countries that trade with North Korea. Actually doing that would probably cause more damage than North Korea could. China is responsible for most of it and they probably could do more to rein them in.

Slowing down nuclear proliferation always seemed like a stop gap measure. One day there will be worse weapons. The missile defense has seen some success as has cyber warfare. These are the kind of things we should be developing to make nuclear weapons less intimidating.
I trust Mattis's judgment, along with McMaster's and Kelly's. Tillerson's also surprised me by being a lot better than I thought he would be.

I'm a little confused by the bolded comment. Are you saying that stopping trade with NK trading partners would cause more damage to us than NK could? Or damage to China? I don't know a whole lot about that subject, so I'm not totally sure what you mean.

Apparently Trump gave the go ahead for SK to lift missile payload limits, and Japan is looking into evacuating Japanese nationals in SK. We'll see what happens next.
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  #28568  
Old 09-04-2017, 04:12 PM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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I'm a little confused by the bolded comment. Are you saying that stopping trade with NK trading partners would cause more damage to us than NK could? Or damage to China? I don't know a whole lot about that subject, so I'm not totally sure what you mean.
I think it would cause damage to the US and big trading partners like China and India which would hurt the entire world economy.
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Old 09-04-2017, 04:19 PM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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I think it would cause damage to the US and big trading partners like China and India which would hurt the entire world economy.
Ah, okay. That makes sense.

I'm not sure if it's possible to really cooperate with China on this, since they don't want to lose NK as a buffer state, or deal with the fallout from an NK collapse. We can't afford to fight China, though the Chinese can't afford to fight us, either.

Which maybe is the best hope of coming to some resolution with China.
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  #28570  
Old 09-04-2017, 05:32 PM
Noitora Noitora is offline

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Real question we should be asking is what Trump will do.
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Old 09-04-2017, 11:09 PM
Kakwakas Kakwakas is offline

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Real question we should be asking is what Trump will do.
Where is the president? It is time for him to come on TV and show strength against the repeated threats from North Korea -- and others.
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:47 AM
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Real question we should be asking is what Trump will do.
Probably something to make leftists compare themselves with the North Koreans living under a dictatorial regime. Or apologize to Un for Donald Trump's behavior. Again.
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:53 AM
Mutterscrawl Mutterscrawl is offline

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Probably something to make leftists compare themselves with the North Koreans living under a dictatorial regime. Or apologize to Un for Donald Trump's behavior. Again.
I dunno if Rosie O'Donnel is the best anecdote to use
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  #28574  
Old 09-05-2017, 10:44 AM
Kakwakas Kakwakas is offline

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I dunno if Rosie O'Donnel is the best anecdote to use
He thinks leftists get their beliefs from Rosier O'Donnel.
Rightists just can't understand that they're the only ones who get their ideals from the celebrities they hero worship.
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Old 09-05-2017, 11:26 AM
SmokeBlader SmokeBlader is offline

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I dunno if Rosie O'Donnel is the best anecdote to use
Not an argument. You can use that excuse for anything.
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