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  #201  
Old 08-13-2019, 09:47 AM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Originally Posted by Mutterscrawl View Post
The 2Q 10Q doesn't report that increase. But its cutoff is June 30th. These numbers may be in the Third Quarter, though it won't be evident in the financials until November.

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  #202  
Old 08-13-2019, 12:23 PM
Krainz Krainz is offline

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
The 2Q 10Q doesn't report that increase. But its cutoff is June 30th. These numbers may be in the Third Quarter, though it won't be evident in the financials until November.
So if we won't know for sure until November, then you can't say someone is lying.

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
My router claims that realmpop is a site that has been identified to contain malicious content. I don't need to get hacked.
I've never got or heard similar claims.

WoWcensus' data is extremely limited.
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  #203  
Old 08-13-2019, 12:40 PM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Originally Posted by Krainz View Post
So if we won't know for sure until November, then you can't say someone is lying.

I've never got or heard similar claims.

WoWcensus' data is extremely limited.
I never said someone was lying. I said the claim doesn't line up with their financial statements, which as we discussed previously, it doesn't. I asked for the metric specifically because I didn't want to step up to that line.

As for you distrusting my router, I guess that's too bad.
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  #204  
Old 08-13-2019, 08:18 PM
Feltongue Feltongue is offline

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There's 3 reasons to play Night Elf in Classic:

- You really like NElves
- You don't like Dwarf Hunters
- You want to play Druid

Subtract all the people who came from WC3 into WoW, consider all the people who minmax in an over a decade old game and subtract all the people who want to be a cute XD elf with a cute XD pet (cause that was one of the main appeals of non WC3 players to play NElves and those now play live and probably BElves or VElves) and those who feel Druids kinda sucked cause they could do anything but nothing amazingly aaaaand there's not a lot of reason to play NElf.

Trolls and Tauren go through the same when Orcs are known to be vastly superior in PvE and Forsaken the to go PvP race.

Also people who play Elves are kinda creepy and gross and make spreadsheets about them to feel vindicated on a dying forum.
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  #205  
Old 08-14-2019, 08:00 AM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Feltongue, if you are just here to make personal attacks on me, I request that you simply stay out of my thread.

In what I imagine was intended to be the only substantive part of your post, you brought up irrelevant factors (like the presence of post-classic races in a classic to classic comparison), and odd reaches that don't explain the movement in other numbers. The only thing you brought up that did make any sense is that we were just coming off of Warcraft 3, and that speaks to MY point!

It was quite clear that you were only here for the last paragraph.

If you don't want to deal with me, you don't have to. I keep my discussions down here, and I haven't been in the SoL discord for months. This thread wasn't even at the top of its own section when you posted, yet here you are anyway?

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  #206  
Old 08-14-2019, 11:56 PM
Marthen Marthen is offline

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
You don't need to know the exact distribution, you just need to know what is reportable. If in the fourth quarter, there were significant drops coming from other franchises in the MAU department, ATVI would have had to report them. They instead reported that those franchises saw sequential stability in the fourth quarter.
What does it have to do with Q4? We are talking about Q2 19. It's not hard to imagine that the distribution of MAUs has changed in half a year.

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
(like the presence of post-classic races in a classic to classic comparison)
That is absolutely relevant, because the existence of retail and its myriad of elf races completely alters the weight of choice of an elf-inclined player.

1) You have players who back in the day would have to pick up a night elf to play an elf in World of Warcraft can now ignore Classic all together and simply play retail and its elves.

2) You have players who back in the day would have to pick up a night elf to play an elf in World of Warcraft can now opt to main an elf on retail, leaving them to a different choice in Classic.
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  #207  
Old 08-15-2019, 06:28 AM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Originally Posted by Marthen View Post
What does it have to do with Q4? We are talking about Q2 19. It's not hard to imagine that the distribution of MAUs has changed in half a year.
It is when you have, like I have, been following the MAUs quarter by quarter. The decreases in Q1 and Q2 have been due to Hearthstone and Overwatch, with no increase or decrease being attributed to WoW in that time. So the 2mm drop in the fourth quarter of 2018 is still the most relevant point to bring up until we get new information.

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That is absolutely relevant, because the existence of retail and its myriad of elf races completely alters the weight of choice of an elf-inclined player.

1) You have players who back in the day would have to pick up a night elf to play an elf in World of Warcraft can now ignore Classic all together and simply play retail and its elves.

2) You have players who back in the day would have to pick up a night elf to play an elf in World of Warcraft can now opt to main an elf on retail, leaving them to a different choice in Classic.
I don't see how this theory holds up, or why among those who simply want to play an elf, why they and they alone would have such a disinterest in classic that it translates to a nearly 50% drop in interest for Night Elves overall, and seems to affect them and only them. It doesn't explain the private server data either.

This is a reach. We have a giant red band - the sort of thing I would never expect to see in this kind of data - and the most proximate attribute level cause, rather than immense unsupported shifts in the population as a whole, is the simplest and most supportable factor to point to - because the others are either effectively controlled for, or are coming from absolutely nowhere.
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  #208  
Old 08-15-2019, 11:23 AM
Krainz Krainz is offline

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
I don't see how this theory holds up, or why among those who simply want to play an elf, why they and they alone would have such a disinterest in classic that it translates to a nearly 50% drop in interest for Night Elves overall, and seems to affect them and only them. It doesn't explain the private server data either.
Because being interested in Classic is different than being interested in World of Warcraft.

You have:

- People who want to play Elves in World of Warcraft
- People who want to play Night Elves in World of Warcraft
- People who want to play Elves in Classic
- People who want to play Night Elves in Classic

The third group might even just going back to retail because of the much richer elven portrayal. The numbers you're observing are clearly the fourth group here.

It's public segregation on top of segregation on top of segregation.

Remember the driving factors of WC3 NE fans that moved into Vanilla WoW back in 2004-2007?

Illidan. Maybe Maiev. Maybe Tyrande.

But mostly Illidan. There were a lot of Illidan (and Legolas, but I digress) fake-name-copies out there (Illîdan, Íllîdan, Ïllîdan, Ìllîdan, Îllîdan, Illídán, Íllídán, Ïllídán, Ìllídán, Îllídán, you get my point).

The Illidan diehard fans now even have Demon Hunters on retail to live out their fantasy!

The point you're trying to analyze (the impact of NE lore in the once most popular race in WoW) is muddled by hundreds of factors.

On retail Night Elves are still the second most-played Alliance race at max level, but look who's in fourth? Void Elves.

And then you go look at the Horde and what do you see? Blood Elves completely dominating the game with nearly 50% on top what Night Elves have.

They're even 48% on top of humans, the most played Alliance race!

This isn't a case of lore or race portrayal, this is a simple case of people like elves, and people want to play elves.

And right now the place where they can best fulfill their fantasy of Warcraft Elf is retail, hence the low desire to play NEs in Classic.
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  #209  
Old 08-15-2019, 10:36 PM
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  #210  
Old 08-15-2019, 11:32 PM
Marthen Marthen is offline

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
It is when you have, like I have, been following the MAUs quarter by quarter. The decreases in Q1 and Q2 have been due to Hearthstone and Overwatch, with no increase or decrease being attributed to WoW in that time. So the 2mm drop in the fourth quarter of 2018 is still the most relevant point to bring up until we get new information.
But it has. Exactly in the claim you are contesting. I don't get what is so hard to understand about his, unless you are so blinded by your confirmation bias you can't even understand simple concepts. Blizzard said that World of Warcraft is seeing an increase, at the same time, we know Overwatch and Hearthstone are in decline. It is not exactly rocket science to imagine that this increase has been off-set by those declines, leaving total MAUs at the same level.

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
I don't see how this theory holds up, or why among those who simply want to play an elf, why they and they alone would have such a disinterest in classic that it translates to a nearly 50% drop in interest for Night Elves overall, and seems to affect them and only them.
It is not a theory. I know several people, my wife included, who played a night elf in Vanilla and are now going to play a different race because they main an elf on retail. It is impossible to correctly estimate the proportionality, but that is the point, we have no hard data, only very limited outsider research and guesses, so it is an utter folly to single out one determinant as primarily responsible, let alone absolutely.


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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
It doesn't explain the private server data either.
This is population data for Elysium, one of larger Vanilla private server clusters. The average percentage from all its servers was 12,3 for night elves as of 15. 10. 2017 (ie before Battle for Azeroth's announcement, so that one is out of equation), and some servers had as low as 11 %. I suppose its players were time travelers.

http://vanillaradar.com/elysium-stats/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
This is a reach. We have a giant red band - the sort of thing I would never expect to see in this kind of data - and the most proximate attribute level cause
I agree. It is a reach to assume this as the most proximate attribute level, unless you are a night elf fan plagued with confirmation bias and selective sourcing, then it gets clear.
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  #211  
Old 08-18-2019, 05:51 PM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Sorry for not being able to respond to these claims more immediately. I'll deal with Marthen's first.

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But it has. Exactly in the claim you are contesting. I don't get what is so hard to understand about his, unless you are so blinded by your confirmation bias you can't even understand simple concepts. Blizzard said that World of Warcraft is seeing an increase, at the same time, we know Overwatch and Hearthstone are in decline. It is not exactly rocket science to imagine that this increase has been off-set by those declines, leaving total MAUs at the same level.
One. The increase that we were discussing was since May of 2019, and is inclusive of some third quarter numbers.

Two, and its frustrating to have to remind non-CPAs about financial accounting standards, but if there was an increase and that increase was significant, accounting standards require that such an increase be called out when discussing those trends. An example of such language you can see in the King numbers in 2019's 2Q 10Q (See page 42):

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives...02019x10xq.htm

"decreases across King’s various franchises, primarily from less engaged users leaving the network, partially offset by an increase in average MAUs for the Candy Crush franchise, primarily given the launch of Candy Crush Friends SagaTM in the fourth quarter of 2018"

Emphasis mine.

That mitigating language does not exist in the first and second quarter of 2019. Hence, I cannot conclude, as you appear to be, that World of Warcraft: Battle for Azeroth, during those two quarters imparted a positive or negative effect on total MAUs. The information just isn't there. Particularly given how materiality calculations work as you begin to consider public versus private materiality levels, and quantitative versus qualitative materiality, I don't buy the Pollyannaistic theories of a "death by a thousand cuts" increase that somehow flew under the radar of SEC filing requirements, particularly when discussing the net bookings metric earlier on the same page, the year over year decrease in net bookings for Blizzard is primarily blamed on Battle for Azeroth and Overwatch.

If the third quarter says something else, then the third quarter says something else, but I'm not going to say anything definitive until I see it in the SEC filings, which are due in the first week of November for the third quarter.

Now, before you or anyone else begins to comment on this point again - I would challenge them to do a page flip through both quarters' 10-Qs, as I did, and call out any language where they see an increase, even a partially mitigated increase, coming from World of Warcraft: Battle for Azeroth, except from in revenues that are coming out of the deferred revenues account - which is just the recognition of prior sales.

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It is not a theory. I know several people, my wife included, who played a night elf in Vanilla and are now going to play a different race because they main an elf on retail. It is impossible to correctly estimate the proportionality, but that is the point, we have no hard data, only very limited outsider research and guesses, so it is an utter folly to single out one determinant as primarily responsible, let alone absolutely.
I don't have to claim that it's the only determinant, just that it's probably a substantial one, but I remain skeptical of the other factors because they require assertions like: "people who played Night Elves in vanilla are more likely to prefer retail", "people who play retail are likely to shun classic entirely and not be part of the classic population", "minmaxing wasn't a thing in 2005 and 2006", "people didn't 'learn' between 2005 and 2006 but are much more enlightened now", and "the gulf in racials is so immense that everyone is just running from Night Elves". These claims are guesses and are not terribly supportable, especially given that we are comparing the same game, with the same systems and the same class balance. The population-level changes, that people just radically changed between now and fifteen years ago again, I think are reaches. Which leads me to consider what Krainz said.

Among the factors that even he mentions is that we were just coming off of Warcraft 3, which is my point. We had just come off a rich portrayal of Night Elves that caused all these people to want to be Illidan or to want to be like Maiev or Tyrande. The thing that's changed in all that time has been the presentation. Not to put too fine of a point on it, but, are there many people who want to be Tyrande now?

I'm not ignoring the rest of your post, by the way Krainz, I just don't agree with the implied assertion that if you played a Night Elf in Vanilla that you are more likely not just to play retail, but to play it to the exclusion of Classic, which is on the same subscription.

As to this point from Marthen:

Quote:
This is population data for Elysium, one of larger Vanilla private server clusters. The average percentage from all its servers was 12,3 for night elves as of 15. 10. 2017 (ie before Battle for Azeroth's announcement, so that one is out of equation), and some servers had as low as 11 %. I suppose its players were time travelers.
These changes are not significant enough to really change the results that I got from the private server data, but I think more important is your claim that we can dismiss them because they were pre-Battle for Azeroth. If you read my post, you would know that I called out the date myself and mentioned the bad Night Elf lore that had happened previously, such as what we saw in Cataclysm and MOP. The sentiment that I'm referring to I had certainly seen a lot of during those time periods as well, and it's possible that the effect was priced in before BFA was even released.

As a final note: I understand the rush to look for something, anything that can explain the catastrophic dip that we see in the numbers. Dismissing Night Elf complaints about the narrative wholesale is a well-worn pastime, but without further population level data, the most evident explanation when we're talking about the same game with the same systems and the same class balance is to point at the only factor that did obviously change between 2005/2006: which is how the Night Elves have been presented in the marketing and in the game.
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  #212  
Old 08-19-2019, 03:55 PM
Krainz Krainz is offline

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
As a final note: I understand the rush to look for something, anything that can explain the catastrophic dip that we see in the numbers. Dismissing Night Elf complaints about the narrative wholesale is a well-worn pastime, but without further population level data, the most evident explanation when we're talking about the same game with the same systems and the same class balance is to point at the only factor that did obviously change between 2005/2006: which is how the Night Elves have been presented in the marketing and in the game.
Only one way to play one type of elf

versus

Many ways two play multiple type of elves
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  #213  
Old 08-19-2019, 04:53 PM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Originally Posted by Krainz View Post
Only one way to play one type of elf

versus

Many ways two play multiple type of elves
I want to ensure that we understand two points:

1. Are you aware that I'm comparing expected classic numbers/vanilla private server data to vanilla numbers?
2. Are you aware that you can have a character on classic and a character on retail at the same time?
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  #214  
Old 08-19-2019, 08:12 PM
Krainz Krainz is offline

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
I want to ensure that we understand two points:

1. Are you aware that I'm comparing expected classic numbers/vanilla private server data to vanilla numbers?
2. Are you aware that you can have a character on classic and a character on retail at the same time?
1. Those numbers are also affected by the factors I mentioned. Why?

a) Maybe some people only played on private vanilla servers because they missed vanilla? Maybe they played on both private vanilla and retail?

b) Maybe some people only played on private vanilla servers because they didn't want to pay for a subscription? Which, in case, would require a comparison to private vanilla to private BFA/Legion?

2. That's precisely part of what I'm pointing out: there are way many factors at play than the Night Elves' portrayal. Originally all the Warcraft Elf Fans were represented by the Night Elf character choice. Now there's more than one kind of Warcraft and more than one kind of elves to play as.

The population of Night Elves in Classic will be affected by:

- Those who want to play a Night Elf in Classic
- Those who don't want to play a Night Elf in Classic because:
- a) They are already fulfilling their fantasies in retail (read: their thing is playing an Elf and they're already doing that in retail with their Blood Elf / Void Elf / Nightborne / Demon Hunter)
- b) The Night Elf portrayal hasnt been optimal recently
- c) Other factors that have yet to be found

Just to give you an idea, roughly 30% of the level 120 Night Elves are Demon Hunters on Alliance-US. That's almost 150 thousand characters, which jumps up to a whooping 627 thousand characters if you count all the way from level 98 to 120.

That Illidan-sized dent is far from unnoticeable. And it's also much, much larger than the Tyrande and Maiev-sized ones.

Source: https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...,tyrande,maiev
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Old 08-20-2019, 06:01 AM
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And then you go look at the Horde and what do you see? Blood Elves completely dominating the game with nearly 50% on top what Night Elves have.

They're even 48% on top of humans, the most played Alliance race!

This isn't a case of lore or race portrayal, this is a simple case of people like elves, and people want to play elves.

And right now the place where they can best fulfill their fantasy of Warcraft Elf is retail, hence the low desire to play NEs in Classic.
Do you have the Horde pie chart without the Alliance in it?
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  #216  
Old 08-20-2019, 07:20 AM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Originally Posted by Krainz View Post
1. Those numbers are also affected by the factors I mentioned. Why?

a) Maybe some people only played on private vanilla servers because they missed vanilla? Maybe they played on both private vanilla and retail?

b) Maybe some people only played on private vanilla servers because they didn't want to pay for a subscription? Which, in case, would require a comparison to private vanilla to private BFA/Legion?
I called up the private server data to compare with the survey data, noting that the numbers were relatively the same. You can say that there were various factors for why they played, but #2 we can certainly remove from consideration.

Quote:
2. That's precisely part of what I'm pointing out: there are way many factors at play than the Night Elves' portrayal. Originally all the Warcraft Elf Fans were represented by the Night Elf character choice. Now there's more than one kind of Warcraft and more than one kind of elves to play as.

The population of Night Elves in Classic will be affected by:

- Those who want to play a Night Elf in Classic
- Those who don't want to play a Night Elf in Classic because:
- a) They are already fulfilling their fantasies in retail (read: their thing is playing an Elf and they're already doing that in retail with their Blood Elf / Void Elf / Nightborne / Demon Hunter)
- b) The Night Elf portrayal hasnt been optimal recently
- c) Other factors that have yet to be found
a. Doesn't pass a sanity check. The required implied assertion here is that people who played or would have played a Night Elf in classic are not just disproportionally more likely to enjoy retail, but so much so that they would do so to the exclusion of classic, and that after that it explains the nearly 50% drop in their numbers. That's one hell of a reach.

b. I think is the most evident thing that changed between 2004/2005 and now.

As for c, I guess I can see why you included it, but would add that we'd need to actually point out what that factor is before discussing it.

Quote:
Just to give you an idea, roughly 30% of the level 120 Night Elves are Demon Hunters on Alliance-US. That's almost 150 thousand characters, which jumps up to a whooping 627 thousand characters if you count all the way from level 98 to 120.

That Illidan-sized dent is far from unnoticeable. And it's also much, much larger than the Tyrande and Maiev-sized ones.

Source: https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...,tyrande,maiev
I added a bit of detail to your view there: https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...0Elf,Malfurion

Two things I want to point out. First, interest remains strong after Blood Elves are introduced and made playable, at least at first. A decline starting midway through Wrath of the Lich King and continuing to this day is clear.

Second, demon hunters did nothing to alter this trend - so I'm unsure that the point you're making about their impact, and the implications from there hold a ton of water.
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Old 08-20-2019, 12:47 PM
Krainz Krainz is offline

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I called up the private server data to compare with the survey data, noting that the numbers were relatively the same. You can say that there were various factors for why they played, but #2 we can certainly remove from consideration.
You still have to compare private server versus private server because of the subscription differential. Many, many people play on private servers because they don't want to spend money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
a. Doesn't pass a sanity check. The required implied assertion here is that people who played or would have played a Night Elf in classic are not just disproportionally more likely to enjoy retail, but so much so that they would do so to the exclusion of classic, and that after that it explains the nearly 50% drop in their numbers. That's one hell of a reach.
You're saying that "everyone" who played a Night Elf in classic is more likely to enjoy retail over classic.

I'm saying is part of the reason. I never said all NE players in classic were actually just Elf fans who would be happier by playing a Blood Elf. Nuance.

I don't see how saying that a portion of the original vanilla Night Elf players were actually just elf fans (especially given the names Legolas and its variations) doesn't pass a "sanity check".
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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
b. I think is the most evident thing that changed between 2004/2005 and now.
To which I disagree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
I added a bit of detail to your view there: https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...0Elf,Malfurion

Two things I want to point out. First, interest remains strong after Blood Elves are introduced and made playable, at least at first. A decline starting midway through Wrath of the Lich King and continuing to this day is clear.

Second, demon hunters did nothing to alter this trend - so I'm unsure that the point you're making about their impact, and the implications from there hold a ton of water.
Kyalin, go around and talk to some Demon Hunter fans who played in vanilla. Preferably those who play Night Elf Demon Hunters.

Ask them if:

a) They originally played a Night Elf in Vanilla
b) They are going to play Classic
c) The reason they won't play Classic is related to them being able to play a Demon Hunter on retail

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Do you have the Horde pie chart without the Alliance in it?
US realms, all levels

US realms, level 120 only

EU realms, all levels

EU realms, level 120 only

Source: https://realmpop.com/
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  #218  
Old 08-20-2019, 05:36 PM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Originally Posted by Krainz View Post
You still have to compare private server versus private server because of the subscription differential. Many, many people play on private servers because they don't want to spend money.
That data does not exist to my knowledge.

Quote:
You're saying that "everyone" who played a Night Elf in classic is more likely to enjoy retail over classic.
This is false. I'm saying that for you to take some of the positions that you're taking, you must also adopt the position that people who played Night Elves then would be disproportionately more likely to play retail to the exclusion of classic. That position, again, is unfounded and does not pass a sanity check given the scale of the difference. Your next two paragraphs rest on this assertion and are hence addressed. The line after that doesn't say anything but to communicate your disagreement.

I'd further add, the theory you're advancing runs into the trend I brought up earlier, which is that interest in Night Elves chugged along at roughly the same level through Burning Crusade - which is where Blood Elves become playable and you have the greatest chance to demonstrate your argument - which I would agree WOULD have been demonstrated if we witnessed a precipitous drop at this time. We didn't.

Quote:
Kyalin, go around and talk to some Demon Hunter fans who played in vanilla. Preferably those who play Night Elf Demon Hunters.

Ask them if:

a) They originally played a Night Elf in Vanilla
b) They are going to play Classic
c) The reason they won't play Classic is related to them being able to play a Demon Hunter on retail
No, I am not going the legwork in an attempt to prove a negative in regards to your assertion that demon hunters are the prime mover here. I shared data that disputes your claim. It shows a marked downward trend, and it shows that Legion, where Demon Hunters became playable, was unable to move that trend. I am asking you how that fact fits within your theory.
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Old 08-20-2019, 06:19 PM
Krainz Krainz is offline

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post

No, I am not going the legwork in an attempt to prove a negative in regards to your assertion that demon hunters are the prime mover here. I shared data that disputes your claim. It shows a marked downward trend, and it shows that Legion, where Demon Hunters became playable, was unable to move that trend. I am asking you how that fact fits within your theory.
Because you're looking at the Night Elf trend after the introduction of Demon Hunters, which should stay the same because they are one of the two only possible Demon Hunter races.

So you have more people googling about Night Elf stuff and optimization because they want to play a Demon Hunter.

Or maybe googling what race is the best one for Demon Hunters, Night Elves or Blood Elves.

If you want to intersect the impact of the Demon Hunter release in the desirability of playing Night Elves in Classic through Google Trends, then you'd have to compare the Night Elf character creation and active characters in Vanilla servers + Retail around the release of Legion.

Why did I post a Google Trends screenshot? To show how much more popular Illidan and Demon Hunters were over Tyrande, Maiev or Malfurion, and that's it.
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Old 08-20-2019, 07:32 PM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Because you're looking at the Night Elf trend after the introduction of Demon Hunters, which should stay the same because they are one of the two only possible Demon Hunter races.

So you have more people googling about Night Elf stuff and optimization because they want to play a Demon Hunter.

Or maybe googling what race is the best one for Demon Hunters, Night Elves or Blood Elves.

If you want to intersect the impact of the Demon Hunter release in the desirability of playing Night Elves in Classic through Google Trends, then you'd have to compare the Night Elf character creation and active characters in Vanilla servers + Retail around the release of Legion.

Why did I post a Google Trends screenshot? To show how much more popular Illidan and Demon Hunters were over Tyrande, Maiev or Malfurion, and that's it.
I don't feel that you could make this statement and have looked at the added factor I threw in to the chart you showed me. It's at the end of post 216, and contains the observations I referenced earlier.

Please review it, please review my subsequent assertions, and then reassess what you've said above.
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Old 08-20-2019, 08:14 PM
Krainz Krainz is offline

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I've read it and I maintain my position.
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Old 08-21-2019, 05:41 AM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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I've read it and I maintain my position.
I don't see how you can.

The trend doesn't move as a result of Legion, but you're talking about more people googling about Night Elf demon hunters anyway? It doesn't make any sense.
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Old 08-21-2019, 07:11 AM
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Krainz offers a reasonable nuanced position that accounts for a variety of factors for why a race was selected for play in Classic vs. now, retail vs. classic, expanded elf options, etc.

Kyalin is ramming down an overly reductionist meta-narrative that blames all woes on crappy Nelf representation with no actual data to back it up.
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Old 08-21-2019, 08:23 AM
Kyalin V. Raintree Kyalin V. Raintree is offline

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Originally Posted by Genesis View Post
Krainz offers a reasonable nuanced position that accounts for a variety of factors for why a race was selected for play in Classic vs. now, retail vs. classic, expanded elf options, etc.

Kyalin is ramming down an overly reductionist meta-narrative that blames all woes on crappy Nelf representation with no actual data to back it up.
Or, you are scrambling for something, anything, to explain the nearly 50% interest drop with any factor other than the one that actually changed between iterations. Because doing that would require you to acknowledge that there is a serious issue with the Night Elves. Even Krainz acknowledges that lore is a factor. Now we're just arguing over its magnitude.

The data about interest over time for Night Elves disputes both of Krainz's claims. The idea that interest in Night Elves just shifted to other elves would hold water if the interest in them experienced a significant decline in 2006. That didn't happen, and instead we see the downward trend beginning in 2009. The idea that demon hunters were driving substantially all of the interest would make sense if in Legion, the then-established downward trend in some way reversed. That didn't happen either.

This leaves the unsupported implication that if you were likely to create a Night Elf in 2004, that you are so disproportionately more likely to like retail to the full exclusion of classic, that it explains the dramatic fall we're seeing in the numbers. I don't see how that makes any sense at all, or why if you were a reasonable person, you would claim that this is the supportable, data-backed position, and that the product of reconciling multiple data sets from multiple independent sources, in order to consider the impact of one factor where the game is otherwise the same is somehow lacking data. You might still not like my conclusions, but the data are right there, and I provided the links.

But, that is if you were being reasonable, and not simply searching for any reason under the sun to deny that there is a serious issue with Night Elf presentation.
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Old 08-21-2019, 11:01 AM
Krainz Krainz is offline

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Originally Posted by Kyalin V. Raintree View Post
I don't see how you can.

The trend doesn't move as a result of Legion, but you're talking about more people googling about Night Elf demon hunters anyway? It doesn't make any sense.
The question about which Demon Hunter race was the best one was very common, among many others.

It's a game of racials, base-stats.

Speaking of racials, did you know that Night Elves are the ONLY played race in the Mythic Dungeon Invitational?

And that's because of Shadowmeld.

Add that on the factors that influence the Night Elf Google Trend staying put.

This factor makes anybody new to the e-sport wonder why is that the case. And thus, they google Night Elves around to figure it out.
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